Gentle Respect

The Skeptic’s Guide to Global Warming

July 16, 2007 · Comments Off

Interesting 82 page paper that argues the following:

There is no doubt that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and it is pretty clear that CO2 produced by man has an incremental impact on warming the Earth’s surface. However, recent warming is the result of many natural and man-made factors, and it is extraordinarily difficult to assign all the blame for current warming to man. In turn, there are very good reasons to suspect that climate modelers may be greatly exaggerating future warming due to man. Poor economic forecasting, faulty assumptions about past and current conditions, and a belief that climate is driven by runaway positive feedback effects all contribute to this exaggeration. As a result, warming due to man’s impacts over the next 100 years may well be closer to one degree C than the forecasted eight. In either case, since AGW supporters tend to grossly underestimate the cost of CO2 abatement, particularly in lost wealth creation in poorer nations, there are good arguments that a warmer but richer world, where aggressive CO2 abatement is not pursued, may be the better end state than a poor but cooler world.

The Skeptic’s Guide to Global Warming

Comments OffCategories: Politics

Peace Prize Winner Wants to Kill Bush

July 12, 2007 · 1 Comment

“Right now, I could kill George Bush,” she said at the Adam’s Mark Hotel and Conference Center in Dallas. “No, I don’t mean that. How could you nonviolently kill somebody? I would love to be able to do that.”

About half the crowd gave her a standing ovation after she called for Mr. Bush’s removal from power.

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Evangelical Dads

July 10, 2007 · No Comments

Religious men, especially evangelical Protestants, are more involved and attentive husbands and fathers than men who are not religious, new research shows.

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Secularization: Myths and Realities

June 27, 2007 · Comments Off

Atheists often predict that the world is secularizing, but the sociologist Rodney Stark disagrees. He makes several points. The first is that atheists have been predicting the imminent demise of Christianity for about three hundred years, and it hasn’t happened yet. Secularization, R.I.P.

as far as I am able to discover, it was Thomas Woolston who first set a date by which time modernity would have triumphed over faith. Writing in about 1710, he expressed his confidence that Christianity would be gone by 1900 (Woolston 1733). Half a century later Frederick the Great thought this was much too pessimistic, writing to his friend Voltaire that “the Englishman Woolston . . . could not calculate what has happened quite recently. . . . It [religion] is crumbling of itself, and its fall will be but the more rapid” (in Redman 1949: 26). In response, Voltaire ventured his guess that the end would come within the next 50 years. Subsequently, not even widespread press reports concerning the second “Great Awakening” could deter Thomas Jefferson from predicting in 1822 that “there is not a young man now living in the United States who will not die a Unitarian” (Healy 1984: 373). Of course, a generation later, Unitarians were as scarce as ever, while the Methodists and Baptists continued their spectacular rates of growth (Finke and Stark 1992).

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Pentacostals in Africa’s Bible Belt

June 27, 2007 · No Comments

In Africa all churches are booming, but Pentecostalism is overtaking traditional Catholic and Anglican faiths brought by European colonizers over a century ago.

Pentecostals and charismatics now account for 147 million Africans, 17 percent of the continent’s people, compared with 5 percent in 1970, the World Christian Database says.

Christians say the ecstatic experiences offered by Pentecostals are more exciting than the subdued worship — complete with silent congregations and soporific organ music — that the continent’s first missionaries brought here.

“Africans want things done powerfully,” said Rev. Nathan Samwini of the Christian Council of Ghana. “You meet white evangelicals from America, they behave like Africans. They are vibrant, everything is done with vigor.”

For Pentecostals, the Holy Spirit — the third person of the Christian Trinity — plays an active role in life, performing miracles and answering prayers. This appeals greatly to a continent beset by poverty and sickness.

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Thoughts on the Libertarian Dems

June 26, 2007 · No Comments

Here are a few thoughts on the Democratic call for libertarians to become Democrats.

Let’s quickly move past the obvious point which is that the case for libertarian Democrats is deeply incoherent. If Moulitsas (AKA DailyKos) knew anything about Public Choice Theory and regulatory capture, he would know that corporations today are powerful not despite government regulations and taxes, but because of them. The more effective case for libertarian Democrats stems from the fact that social issues are more important than economic issues, despite the incoherent protestations made by the What’s the Matter With Kansas crowd. Given this, I expect that most libertarians will become Democrats.
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On The Division of Labor

June 25, 2007 · Comments Off

In 1776 Adam Smith created the modern study of economics when he published ‘The Wealth of Nations.’ On the first page of chapter one he noted that pin makers could only make about 20 pins a day, but with the help of machinery and assembly line techniques, they could make about 4800 pins a day. This had two consequences. The first was that pins got a lot cheaper, the second was that a lot of pin makers lost their jobs.

Before cars were built on assembly lines they were built by highly skilled craftsmen. It was a slow and difficult process which meant that only the rich could afford cars. Henry Ford realized that if the job were broken down into small parts, cars could be built much more quickly with unskilled labor. Skilled craftsmen lost their jobs, but it made cars affordable for everyone.

Did the good outweigh the bad? Do cheap goods justify lost jobs? Are we better off now than we were 200 years ago?
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Immigration, Catholicism, and First Possession

June 22, 2007 · No Comments

There is a good post on the Acton Institute’s Power Blog that captures many of my feelings about immigration. The concept of first possession - that whoever owns something first gets to keep it - is anathema to the political left. But it is essential for societies to be friendly to newcomers. Here is an example of a town that does not respect first possession:

Imagine a town with one hundred people. Each has a one hundred foot wide lot. If someone new shows up, we redraw property lines. Each lot shrinks by one foot, to make room for the new person’s equal share (and so on as more people arrive). Question: How friendly will that town be?

It seems that the latter is exactly what many political liberals in America are doing by guaranteeing various kinds of entitlements to immigrants, whether legal or illegal. In that sense, a statist ideology that emphasizes government provision of various social entitlements seems to promote and foment rather than minimize xenophobia.

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The Village Voice Queer Issue

June 21, 2007 · No Comments

There are two interesting articles in the Village Voice’s recent queer issue. Christians and conservatives would be well advised to read them. The first article is about babies and small children that might be gay:

“When I took my kids to the science museum to learn about birthing, my daughter, who was five at the time, decided that she would marry another girl and let her have the baby,” says one mother at a playground in Boston. (”Oh, how cute!” exclaimed another mother nearby.) “My son has a very close friend,” says the mother of a five-year-old boy. “He calls him his ‘godbrother’ and he does want to marry him. It’s just kind of like that’s what you do.”

That’s no surprise to Elaine Winter, principal of the lower school at the Little Red School House in Manhattan. “There absolutely is dramatic play in early childhood,” she reports. “They’ll say, ‘This can be a house with two mommies,’ because that’s the book we read yesterday, or that’s what Susie’s family is like.”

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An Assault on the Constitution?

June 20, 2007 · No Comments

A mildly popular blogger liberal blogger named Digby made this recent speech on behalf of bloggers at the Take Back America conference.

You will not find anyone amongst us who believes that the Bush administration’s executive power grab and flagrant partisan use of the federal government is anything less than an assault on the Constitution.

This is a standard talking point from the left. But what exactly does it mean? How can someone who believes in a Living Document theory of Constitutional law say that something is an assault on the Constitution? If the Constitution evolves, then why can’t it evolve to make the Executive more powerful?

This underscores what the slippery slope of the Living Document theory of Constitutional Law. Textualism or even originalism would be far superior.

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